COVID-19 VS. PREVIOUS PANDEMICS & EPIDEMICS

Unfortunately this is my 2nd attempt to write this essay. I inadvertently (Naturally, would I intentionally do it?) deleted it just as I had finished the 5-page essay. Here it is again to the best of my ability and memory. This essay is a comparison of the current coronavirus pandemic with previously pandemics and epidemics and with other mass dying situations. In 2019 there were approx. 38,000 motor vehicle deaths in the USA and in 2016, the latest figure available, 1,350,000 deaths in the world. All of these deaths could not have rationally been avoided. However, speed is a killer and a significant number of deaths could have been saved by legislating and enforcing lower speed limits. In order not to inconvenience too many people and interfere somewhat with transportation commerce, lower speed limits than what now exist have not been imposed. It would logically appear that these lives are considered expendable. On average each year approx. 100,000 people in the USA are hospitalized with 36,000 deaths owing to drug overdoses. There has been a 2-fold increase in the last decade. There were 4.2 deaths per 100,000 people in 1999 and 28 per 100,000 people in 2017. These tragic numbers have not been spoken about much at all in the Main Stream Media, other than being commented by Tucker Carlson of Fox-TV for the past couple of years. Other than by Carlson, are these people also considered expendable? In the 1918-19 Spanish flu nearly 1/3 of the world population was infected (It was unfairly called the Spanish flu because Spain was the first country to honestly report the number of cases and deaths. It is thought this flu started in the USA and was carried by United States troops to France during WW1. Then President Woodrow Wilson lied about it because he did not want anything to interfere with the war effort.) An estimated 50 million people in the world died because of it with 675,000 deaths in the USA. Unusually, the most affected was in the 20 to 40 age range. Likely, this was owing to a healthy, but overactive immune system. According to a TV program on National Public Radio (NPR) the general reaction of people when the pandemic was over was to forget it. There was no claimer to plan or prepare for another pandemic. People simply wanted to get past it. In 1957-58 Asian flu (H2N2) nearly 2 million in the world died with 69,800 deaths in the USA. This was the 2nd major pandemic in the 20th century. In 1968-69 Hong Kong flu (H3N2) approx. 20 million people in the world were infected with at least 1 million dead. The USA death toll was approx. 100,000. This flu had a low death rate of 0.5%. The 2003 SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) caused 8100 people in the world to get sick with 775 deaths. Most of the cases occurred in China & Hong Kong with 84% of the total deaths. Although there is a great deal of uncertainty in the worldwide number of infections and deaths in the 2009-10 Swine flu pandemic, according to the CDC, there were 15 million infections in the world with 150,000 deaths. In the USA there were 12,469 deaths. The death rate was almost 1% - twice that of the 1968-69 Hong Kong flu. Deaths or serious illnesses were no higher than the yearly flu. In the 2014-15 Ebola flu, according the USA Dept. of Health and Human Services, there were 28,652 cases with 11,325 deaths. Most of the cases were in the West African countries of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This flu was extremely deadly killing 40% of those infected. The current statistics about the coronavirus as this essay is being written are as follows: Cases and death in the world 1,447,412 and 91,783; USA 363,851 and 15,744 Italy 125,000 and 15,500; Spain 146,250 and 14,262; France 83,000 and 6500; UK 34,000 and 3000; China 81,708 and 3,331. Given the lies and disinformation that the Chinese government has committed from the start of this pandemic, their totals could easily be an order of magnitude more. In fact one expert on China has said on TV that the total infected could be ½ million and 30,000 deaths. The totals in the USA and the rest of the world could also be off in the opposite direction by an honest mistake. According to the CDC, on average the number of people who get the yearly flu is approx. 49,000,000 with 36,000 deaths. So far this flu season there have been approx.18,000 deaths. This is well below what the average is at this stage of the yearly flu. It could be that some of the coronavirus deaths are really just deaths caused by the yearly flu. By the models, which have predicted the number of cases of this virus, the number who have recovered, and the number of deaths were way over estimated. The IHME at the University of Washington estimated last month that 245,000 Americans would die from the coronavirus. Their estimate now is 60,000 Americans will die. Their estimate of the number people who would get the virus and the number requiring hospitalization were also too high by a factor of 3 or 4. These too high figures at least partially resulting in panic by various states and cities requesting what turned out to be in some instances too many, ventilators, hospital beds, gowns, and masks. In 2018 the number of American who died because of the yearly flu was 61,000; by drug overdose 67,000; by suicide 50,000; by excessive drinking of alcohol 88,000; by diabetes 83,000; by cancer 606,000. Except for the last two certainly the others could be significantly reduced with more involved care and intervention. Why was and is not more concern and effort being made to reduce these numbers? These efforts pale in comparison with what is being done now in regard to the coronavirus. After all, what is the difference between the people who die by these various means? What was it in the first 2 weeks of the shutdown, 6 million people filing for unemployment? There are now 16.6 million people who have filed for unemployment benefits or approx. 10% of the workforce. There will obviously be millions more who file for unemployment benefits before normal working conditions are realized and the economy gets back on track. Some of the prominent medical specialists do not seem to fully or even partially appreciate these dire consequences. I would suggest that if the economic shut down lasts more than beyond the end of April or at least has not made a good start of resuming in some areas by then the economic impact would be substantial. If this shutdown goes on well into May and even beyond, say into June, July, August, September, etc. then the unemployment and economic damage will be ongoing for many months or even years, depending upon the length of the shutdown. There is another aspect to what is occurring with this huge government spending. We already have a massive almost $24 trillion national debt. What this 2 to 4 trillion additional federal government spending will almost certainly do is ignite inflation to some degree depending how long the economic shutdown lasts. Admittedly some of these monies are for loans or loan guarantees, however most of is for direct payments and even some of the money loaned to small businesses will become grants if these companies do not layoff any of their employees. I predict we will see increased inflation before the end of this year. And how much after that depends upon, as I have said, how long the shutdown lasts. What to make of the data I have quoted so far? I believe the cited data show that compared to previous pandemics, epidemics, and the many people who have died of the other listed causes there is an over reaction to the coronavirus. True, there was a certain predictability to the number of people killed by vehicle wreaks and to a lesser extent by drug overdoses, suicides, and excessive alcohol drinking, yet the other pandemic death were not any more predictable at the time than the current one is now. I will admit that theoretically I do not know more about the final outcome of this pandemic than what has been forecasted already. However, some of the highly inaccurate projections which have been made leave me with the feeling that I could not do worse than what has been said. At this point in the coronavirus pandemic, based upon the data I have analyzed, I propose the following statistics: In the world 2,500,000 cases of infection & 160,000 deaths; in the USA 900,000 cases of infection & 50,000 deaths.