RUSSIA TODAY-71

Many people believe the United States has serious problems and they are not mistaken. However, I could ask compared to what? Here is a country that is clearly in greater peril than the USA. Below is a credible scenario supported by FACTS. I sent this to a long time friend of mine now living in London. We worked together for several years at Mobil Oil. He is a PhD in geology (now retired) who grew up in Leningrad, worked in the Soviet Union, and came to the USA in the middle 1980's. He agrees with what I have presented here, but hopes he does not live long enough to actually see the collapse of motherland Russia: Are you familiar with a man named Ilan Berman? He is Vice-President of an organization called the American Foreign Policy Council and an author of a recent book – Implosion: The End of Russia and What it Means for America. I heard him discuss his book over the weekend. He was born in this country and has made many trips to Russia. His parents were “Refuseniks” (otka3hnk). Berman talks about three intersecting trend lines that are difficult for the Russian government to deal with individually and taken together eventually will be catastrophic for the country. The first trend line is demographics: Berman says that Russia is dying. The replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman. As you know there are many countries in Europe with a lower fertility rate (F.R.) than that and Russia is one of the lowest at 1.6. In the last 8 months or so there has been an uptick in the F.R., but demographers say that is not at all unusual and the trend is clearly negative. There are other reasons for Russia’s declining population. Through natural death and emigration Russia is losing ½ million people per year. Currently the population is 142.9 million with a projected population of 107 million by 2050. The male life expectancy is 60 years – the same as Madagascar. The female life expectancy is 73 years – the same as Saudi Arabia. Russia experienced no “peace dividend” as did the United States after the end of the Cold War. The spending in Russia on health services is the same as it was in the mid 1990’s. These are all United Nations statistics. There has been a collapse of the family after the end of the Cold War. Previously the family was the glue that held people together even if not everyone in the extended family liked each other. Russia has the highest divorce rate in Europe and 60% of the divorces end in the 1st decade of marriage causing fewer multi-children families. Even during the Cold War abortion was high and was the main method of birth control. It is even higher now with an official estimate of 1.2 million abortions/yr. According to some medical people outside of the government that number may actually be twice as large. Therefore abortion may be approaching 2% of the population/yr. The Russia government admits there is an epidemic of AIDS in the Russian population with 1% being HIV positive and is fueled by drug use. Worldwide 1/5 of heroin consumption is in Russia and 1/3 of drug users are HIV positive. The population is fleeing. The pace of the exodus rivals that at the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union. Of Russians in general 1/5 want to emigrate and fully 40% of young people in the 18 – 35 age bracket want to leave. The 2nd trend line is that Russia is transforming: The Muslim population in Russia is currently about 15% or 21 million. It is projected to be close to 20% by the end of this decade and 50% by the middle of the century. The same maladies that plague non-Muslim Russians are significantly less in the Muslim population: i.e., lower rates of abortion, divorce, drug use, AIDS & HIV, and a higher fertility rate. And more like Western Europe rather than the USA, these Muslims are not well integrated into Russian society. Everyone has heard of the problems the Russian government has had with Muslim extremists in the North Caucasus, and in particular in Chechnya and Dagestan. This problem and this area are not in the world’s headlines as much now as previously. That does not mean that the trouble has abated; on the contrary it has migrated into the Russian heartland. Recently in the capital city of Kazan in Tatarstan two Muslim clerics were assassinated for not being radical enough. Rather than having the problem under control, the Russian government may have to face several Chechnya’s in the future. The third trend line: the Chinese are coming. The Russia Far East is huge; it is 4 million sq. miles. Berman says in the Soviet Union his parents were told where to live, as were tens of millions of other people. Now people are essentially free to migrate wherever they chose and they chose NOT to live in the Far East of Russia. In Western Siberia and the Far East there are 25+ million people, that works out to about 6 people / sq. mi. – not exactly the population density of Hong Kong. The Eastern part of Russia is an energy super area, especially for oil & natural gas, as well as exploitable for many mineral deposits so it does matter. The Chinese are making large financial investments there and increasingly so. Clearly the Chinese government sees this as an important area in their future. The airline distance from Moscow to Vladivostok is 4000 miles. The distance from Beijing to Vladivostok is 830 miles or almost five times closer. This land has been disputed between Russia and China for centuries. In 2001 there was a treaty concerning this area signed by Russia and China. The Russians wanted the agreement to have a long term “sunset” clause thereby extending the treaty well into the future. The Chinese said no, let’s have a 20 year length. The Chinese figured the demographics would change in their favor and they could then be bargaining from a stronger position. Clever those Chinese. Vladimir Putin seems to think only in the short term. He has a close circle of followers who engage in massive corruption, kickbacks, and graft. Putin used to give lip service to “managed democracy”, but does not even bother with that now. For Russia to fundamentally change that system would have to go and there is not the least chance of that happening. Putin has described the collapse of the Soviet Union as one of the greatest calamities of the 20th century. And both Bush and Obama thought they could do business with him? What is the operative word here: naive or stupid? Putin may very well have achieved recent international success with his handling of Syria and Iran vis-à-vis the USA, but it could also be interpreted as drawing attention away from the internal problems of Russia. Not much is likely to change in Russia in the next few years, however the real challenge for the USA in the next 20 to 30 years will be dealing with the weakness not the strength of Russia. And a still nuclear-armed Russia may look westward and attempt to again gain hegemony over Eastern Europe.